The Jan 25 Revolution has failed. Certain facts cause searing pain but that doesnt make them any less true. The reasons are many but chief among them is that those who believed in revolution were the least prepared to offer governance solutions. It is human, indeed, to err but it is foolishness, of society imploding proportions, to repeat the same mistake twice. This is precisely what is occuring again in a deeply saddening fashion in the Egyptian sphere. There is an understandbly angry, demoralized, and some may even argue, demoralized political Islam flank. The humanist, liberal, neo progressive revolutionary camp has been decimated by its own political inefficacy and an organized campaign by a counter revolutionary deep military establishment. The remainder of the Egyptian realm is, largely, divided into 2 camps: pro Sisi and pro systematic political disintetrest.
It is the last camp that holds the key to the speed with which the next explosive faceoff takes place. This camp is largely driven by economic interest, both in the short and long term. While Sisi has been in office for a mere 2.5 months intial indicators speak of a man who is not the mood to discuss much of anything. In a military like way he governs. This modality, many incorrectly believe, is precisely what Egypt needs. After taking a huge risk by lifting subsidies on many parts of the economy it became clear that while his adminstration understood why these steps must be taken there was an inversally proptional lack of attention to the effects of said changes on the populous and Sisi’s support base.
Moreover, and in a very preceptible way, the electricty crisis that hugely impacted public opinion of his predecessor, Mohammed Morsi, continues to increasingly becomes a game changing dynamic. Speak to ten Egyptians, on any given day, and your conversation will not be free of complaints about this issue. While the adminstration believes it to be an incovenience that most Egyptians will tolerate as it is not a new phenomona they couldnt be more removed from reality. The electtricity crisis may yet become the issue that sets a more urgent tone for development of grass roots opposition. For, what many forget is the fact that the Sisi camp isnt made up of ardent supporters across the board. For many of those belonging to that large camp their marriage to Sisi is one of convenience: if he doesnt meet their needs this support will evaporate quicker than you can say: revolution.
But, as was the case with Jan 25, Egypt, as it stands now, is structurally ill equipped to offer a governance alternative model that will right the ship. No political camp possesses a charistmatic leader with a readily identifiable platform that holds the answers to the Egyptian question.
Egypt, We have a problem
( To be Continued)